[SMM Steel Market Morning News] National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): National consumer prices rose 0.1% YoY in June

★Macro★

01 ★★★ [NBS: China's CPI up 0.1% YoY in June]

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data shows China's consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.1% YoY in June 2025. Urban areas saw 0.1% growth while rural areas declined 0.2%. Food prices fell 0.3%, non-food prices rose 0.1%, consumer goods prices dropped 0.2%, and service prices increased 0.5%. H1 CPI decreased 0.1% YoY compared to the previous year. Month-on-month, CPI fell 0.1% in June, with urban areas down 0.1%, rural areas unchanged, food prices down 0.4%, non-food prices stable, consumer goods prices down 0.1%, and service prices unchanged.

02Z7/> ★★ [NDRC: China's GDP expected to reach ~RMB 140 trillion in 2025]

NDRC Director Zheng Shanjie stated at a State Council press conference that China has achieved groundbreaking progress, transformative changes, and historic accomplishments over the past five years, becoming the world's most stable, reliable, and proactive growth driver. China remains the primary contributor to global growth, with economic aggregates surpassing RMB 110 trillion, 120 trillion, and 130 trillion successively, and expected to reach approximately RMB 140 trillion this year with incremental growth exceeding RMB 35 trillion. To contextualize, this incremental volume equals rebuilding the Yangtze River Delta region's economy or surpassing the GDP of the world's third-largest economy, exceeding the combined output of China's three largest provincial economies (Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong). China contributes about 30% of global growth annually. Despite average growth of 5.5% over the past four years amid various risks, maintaining such growth rates for an economy of this scale is unprecedented in economic history.

03 ★★ [State Council issues notice on intensifying employment stabilization policies]

The General Office of the State Council issued a notice outlining policy measures across seven areas to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, promoting high-quality economic development.

★Industrial & Downstream★

01 ★★★ [SMM Hot-Rolled & Cold-Rolled Production Schedule] – Annual maintenance at some steel mills & order pressure push down July's daily average production schedule for both hot/cold-rolled products

SMM's latest tracking indicates 31 mainstream steel mills plan to produce 4.1592 million mt of cold-rolled commercial materials in July, a 1.11% MoM decrease (46,800 mt) from June's actual output. On a daily average basis, July has one more day than June. The planned daily average production volume for cold-rolled products in July reached 134,200 mt, representing a 4.30% decrease MoM from June's actual daily average production.

According to SMM's latest tracking, the 39 mainstream HRC steel mills scheduled a total of 14.3906 million mt of hot-rolled commodity materials for July production, increasing by 74,900 mt or 0.52% compared to June's actual HRC commodity material output. On a daily average basis, July's planned HRC commodity material production reached 464,200 mt/day, showing a 13,000 mt decrease or 2.72% decline MoM from June's actual daily average production.

02 ★★★ [SMM Rebar Production Schedule] High Profits Can't Conceal Weak Reality: Total Construction Material Production Rises but Daily Output Slightly Drops

July's planned rebar production reached 8.6913 million mt, increasing by 91,600 mt or 1.07% compared to June's actual output.

July's planned wire rod production reached 3.5198 million mt, increasing by 38,900 mt or 1.12% compared to June's actual output.

03 ★★ [China's NEV Ownership Surpassed 5-Fold Growth Compared to End of 13th Five-Year Plan]

Haibing Zhou, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), stated at the State Council Information Office's first press conference on "High-Quality Completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan" on July 9th that China's NEV ownership reached 31.4 million units in 2024, more than quintupling from 4.92 million units at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan period.

04 ★★ [China's Excavator and Loader Sales Grew Over 10% in H1]

According to China Construction Machinery Association, sales of excavators and loaders - two major representative products in China's construction machinery sector - both exceeded 10% growth in H1. Latest data shows 120,520 excavators were sold by major manufacturers in H1 2025, up 16.8% YoY, including 54,883 export units which grew 10.2% YoY. Experts indicate after a brief decline in May, both domestic and overseas excavator sales recovered in June, particularly with nearly 20% YoY growth in overseas markets. Meanwhile, loader sales - another key category in the sector - also performed strongly. China sold 64,769 loaders of various types in H1, up 13.6% YoY.

★Other Hot Topics★

⭕[EU Official Says Trump Administration Showed No Sincerity for Trade Talks, Ready for Countermeasures] According to CCTV News, Bernd Lange, Chair of the European Parliament's International Trade Committee, stated at a press conference in Brussels on July 9th that current EU-US trade disputes remain focused on sector-specific tariff issues, particularly in steel, automobiles, copper, and potentially pharmaceutical products. Lange stated that the EU mainly exports pharmaceuticals, automobiles, and machinery equipment, and therefore urgently needs to reach an agreement with the US as soon as possible to achieve clear final outcomes and decisions. However, he also noted that the US has not yet committed to lowering tariffs or accepted the EU's proposed "freeze clause," which would prevent the implementation of new trade restrictions before a final agreement is reached. According to Lange, the EU has prepared countermeasures, with the first phase to take effect automatically on July 14. He believes the current Trump administration has not demonstrated sufficient sincerity, conveying more "language of power" than "language of partnership." The EU calls for rebuilding genuine partnerships and promoting a global cooperation framework that respects the multilateral trading system. US President Trump stated on the 8th local time that a new 50% tariff would be imposed on all copper imported into the US, but did not disclose the specific effective date of the new tariffs.

⭕[MIIT: Launching Feedback Window for Key Automakers' Compliance with Payment Cycle Commitments]The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) today (the 9th) launched an "Online Feedback Window for Key Automakers' Compliance with Payment Cycle Commitments" to address issues raised by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) regarding key automakers' failure to honor payment term commitments or properly implement the *Regulations on Ensuring Payments to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises*. The window primarily accepts four categories of complaints: 1) Key automakers failing to honor the 60-day payment term commitment, with contractual payment periods exceeding 60 days; 2) Key automakers unreasonably delaying the start of payment deadlines, withholding inspection or acceptance certificates without justification to extend payment terms, or conditioning payments on receipt of third-party payments or proportional third-party payments; 3) Key automakers coercing or covertly coercing SMEs to accept non-cash payment methods such as commercial drafts or electronic payment instruments for accounts receivable; and 4) Other issues related to key automakers' inadequate implementation of the *Regulations on Ensuring Payments to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises*.Z40/>